Leviathan: AGI, Surveillance, and the New Architecture of Global Power
By: Bryan Fu
The rise of Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) marks a turning point in global politics, redrawing the boundaries of power and influence. Unlike traditional AI, which enhances automation and data analysis, AGI’s ability to make autonomous decisions could fundamentally change how states compete, cooperate and govern. The development of AGI will have huge impacts on global power, diplomatic tensions and economic consequences, especially for nations trying to recover and grow in an increasingly AI driven world.
Control over technology has always been a key driver of state power, with AI, quantum computing and semiconductors shaping national security and economic growth. AGI, however, introduces a new challenge: it reduces reliance on human expertise and can independently solve complex problems, shifting traditional advantages away from human capital. This means that states with the most advanced AGI systems will hold unprecedented influence.
The US and China are the main contenders in this race, with China’s DeepSeek AI breakthroughs signaling a growing challenge to American tech dominance. In response, the US has tightened export controls and imposed sanctions to slow China’s progress. But as AGI spreads, these measures may become ineffective, forcing a new approach to managing global AI power. The competition for AGI supremacy is no longer just about hardware or data, but rather about controlling intelligence itself.
Nations are already clashing over how AGI should be governed. Institutions like the United Nations and OECD have attempted to establish AI oversight, but AGI’s capabilities are outpacing existing regulations. The core debate centres on who should control AGI and whether it should be managed by individual states or through global agreements.
Western nations, led predominantly by the US, advocate for international treaties similar to the NPT, arguing that AGI could be weaponized or destabilise economies. China, on the other hand, pushes for state-led control, prioritising national sovereignty. The EU currently favours strict ethical regulations that limit AGI’s growth. These competing visions create a fragmented regulatory environment. Without a unified approach, an AGI arms race becomes more likely, where states prioritise their own technological advancement over global stability. As a result, new geopolitical alliances are forming around AI development, such as the US led AI partnership for defense and China’s New Silk Road.
AGI’s economic impacts will be profound, especially for developing and recovering economies. On one hand, AGI driven automation could help struggling nations rebuild industries and optimize supply chains. On the other, nations without access to AGI technology may become increasingly dependent on foreign AI systems, leading us to a new age of digital colonialism. This digital colonialism will lead to wealthier nations controlling AI powered decision making areas like finance, agriculture and infrastructure. If AGI remains concentrated in the hands of the few regional hegemons, it will widen the global economic inequality.
However, some nations are finding ways to adapt. Brazil’s AI driven agricultural systems and India’s efforts to integrate AI into public healthcare show how localized AGI applications can provide economic benefits. The key challenge is ensuring that these countries develop their own AGI capabilities rather than relying on external systems that may not serve their best interests.
The integration of AGI not only enhances the tools of surveillance, but revolutionises the very logic of state power, dissolving boundaries between governance, control and algorithmic determinism. AI has already reconfigured the modern surveillance apparatus, and AGI completes the transition. Totalising oversight is not just a tool of the state but its primary means of governance. Sovereignty will no longer be mediated through bureaucracy, but through self improving systems that anticipate and manage populations. Biopolitical control reaches its peak under AGI. What was once a matter of bureaucracy, is now consolidated into an autonomous learning intelligence that preempts risks. Although this may sound like a dystopian future, this logic is already visible in China as AI powered social credit, digital surveillance, financial incentives and political compliance. Authoritarian regimes may use AGI for ideological conformity and eliminate dissent. The continued development of AGI produces a world where governance is surveillance.
AGI is assured to become the new defining factor in global power, shaping diplomacy, economics and fueling new modes of governance. The immediate contest between the US and China will set the stage for AGI’s geopolitical impact, but its long term influence depends on how well international institutions can adapt to its rapid development. The struggle for technological dominance is not just of leadership, but defines the future balance of power. If AGI remains concentrated, it deepens inequalities and fuels surveillance. However, if states and institutions work together to manage its growth and set ethical guidelines, AGI could become a tool for inclusion. As humanity reaches this new era in advancement, intelligence - both artificial and strategic - will determine which nations rise and fall in the global order.
